Backwardation
Backwardation is when uranium forward prices are below spot prices, signaling immediate supply surplus or demand urgency.
Seen in uranium during 2022 spot rallies from Russia-Ukraine tensions, with spot at $60/lb vs. lower forwards. It prompts sellers to deliver promptly and buyers to secure long-term supply. Rare post-2022 due to structural deficits.
Why it matters now
Backwardation risks in 2025-2026 could arise from HALEU bottlenecks or ZNPP disruptions, affecting investor confidence in nuclear stocks.
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CCJ