Uranium Prices

Niger’s 5% share of global uranium supply faces elevated disruption risk following the 2023 coup; sanctions and regulatory tightening have already delayed Orano shipments by ~25% YoY. Security incidents and infrastructure bottlenecks compound export uncertainty, while the junta’s resource-nationalism agenda raises the probability of forced contract renegotiations or outright license revocation within 12-18 months.

Russia accounts for ~6% of global uranium mine production yet faces compounding Western sanctions and shifting transit patterns that raise both compliance and logistical costs. Regulatory tightening and labor constraints are eroding operational flexibility, while alternative CIS producers divert volumes away from Russian infrastructure. Overall supply risk posture continues to worsen.

Kazakhstan’s 43% share of global uranium supply faces moderate, contained risks. Operational constraints from reagent shortages and Russian transit dependence are balanced by absence of sanctions and steady regulatory oversight. Overall posture remains stable with no immediate escalation signals.

Uzbekistan’s uranium supply chain exhibits moderate geopolitical risk driven by transit dependence on Russian corridors and majority-state ownership rules, offset by the absence of sanctions and steady operational performance. Current 5% share of global production is secure in the near term, but any escalation in Russia-related secondary sanctions could quickly elevate transit risk.

Namibia’s uranium supply risk remains medium; while political and sanctions environments are benign, reliance on a single rail corridor and recent labor and regulatory tightening keep the risk score at 32. Output at 11% of global production is secure through 2025 license renewals, but logistics and cost pressures could constrain near-term flexibility.

Australia maintains very low geopolitical supply risk for its 12% share of global uranium output. Regulatory stability, absence of sanctions, and modern logistics infrastructure continue to support reliable exports, with only localized Indigenous consultation timelines presenting modest non-critical delays.

Canada’s uranium supply risk remains low due to sustained political stability, reliable logistics, and unchanged export rules. Production share at ~15 % of global output is supported by Cameco’s ramp-up and absence of labor or regulatory headwinds. Overall posture shows no material deterioration versus the prior 12-month baseline.